全球马流感发生的风险状况研究

Study on the Risk Status of Global Equine Influenza and its Cccurrence Pattern

目的开展在全球尺度上的马流行性感冒(马流感)发生状况的分析。方法基于数据挖掘方法,借鉴地理风险分析和Kolmogorov-Smirnov统计检验的方法,开展对全球马流感发生态势的分析。结果统计分析认为:(1)全球马流感近十年以来发生涉及范围和区域扩大,发病数量增多,发病频次高,发病态势严重。(2)全球马流感发生的区域特征显著,美洲和欧洲是全球马流感发病态势比较严重的区域,而亚洲相对较美欧的发病态势为弱。(3)在近十年以来,全球尺度上马流感的发生在空间和时间上保持较强的连续性和比较平稳的发展态势,但局部时段的马流感的发生呈现较大的跳跃性。结论美洲和欧洲是目前马流行性感冒发生和流行的主要区域,从该区域输入马匹等马属动物及其产品会带来一定的释放风险.

Objcetive To analyse risk status of global equine influenza and its occurrence pattem. Method The techniques of epidemiology data mining, geography risk analysis and Kolmogorov-Smimov statistic test were employed to address the problem concemed. Result Analysis showed that： （1）Equine influenza had been spreading globally with increasing scale, fresuency and severe status in recent decade. （2）The global equine influenza occurrence showed regional characteristics with the south ＆ north Americas and EU continents as the main infested regions and Asia as a comparatively low epidemic area; （3）Globally, occurrences of equine influenza appeared a spatial-temporal smoothing trend in its development, but clusters of emerging outbreaks surged in certain period of time. Conclusion Currently, South America ＆ North America and EU continents were the main equine influenza regions and equine and its related products imported from there might have certain risk.