基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的煤矿安全事故灾变预测及算法

Prediction of Coal Mine Disastrous Accidents Based on Gray GM(1,1) Model and its Algorithm

煤矿由于自身的生产特点,安全事故比较突出,我国煤矿事故死亡人数是世界上主要产煤国煤矿死亡人数的4倍以上。文章运用灰色预测法对某煤矿的安全事故死亡事故频率(FAFR)进行灾变预测,判断该煤矿下一个职工死亡事故频率高峰期出现的时间,并给出相应的算法,为制定完善的煤矿安全政策及煤矿安全预警控制系统提供决策依据。

A coal mine has a lot of more mishaps for its own production features.the number of the coal mine accident deaths in China is more 4 times than coal mine deaths in the world＇s major coal mine country,Fatal Accident Frequency Rate of miner in certain area was forecasted by gray prediction method,the peak time of the next Fatal Accident Frequency Rate of miner was determined,and the corresponding algorithm was given to provide the basis of decision-making for perfect mine safety policy and safety early warning control system.