全球气候模式对中国降水分布时空特征的评估和预估

Assessment and Projection for Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Precipitation in China Based on Global Climate Models

使用观测和多模式集合的降水资料,评估全球气候模式对中国降水时空分布特征的模拟能力,并给出21世纪的预估。结果表明:全球气候模式在一定程度上能够再现中国地区降水的分布型,也能模拟出降水的区域性差异,对年降水10年、20年尺度的周期变化模拟效果较好。21世纪SRES A1B情景下中国年及夏季降水主要模态以全国一致型为主,2045年前后由少雨型转为多雨型;冬季降水为少雨型与多雨型交替出现。

Based on observed precipitation data in East Asia and the multi-model ensemble derived from the outputs of AOGCMs participating in the IPCC AR4,and using EOF analysis and Morlet wavelet transform,the preliminary assessment of AOGCMs simulation capabilities for temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in China from 1961 to 2000 has been done,and the projections under the SRES A1B scenario in the 21st century are also presented.The results show that the AOGCMs are able to reproduce the distribution of the observed precipitation in China,and also able to demonstrate its regional features;AOGCMs have good performances on periodic variation with 10-year,20-year scales.The principal spatial pattern of annual and summer precipitation over China is mainly wet-type in the 21st century under the SRES A1B scenario.However,the characteristics of winter precipitation are different,showing alternation between dry-type and wet-type.