我国工业“三废”的环境库兹涅茨曲线实证研究

Study on Environmental Kuznets Curve of Industrial "Three Wastes" in China

选取我国1996~2008年共13年的人均GDP与工业＂三废＂排放量的统计数据,借助SPSS系统软件,建立计量经济学模型,分析了工业＂三废＂排放量的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征及其成因。研究发现：我国工业固体废物排放量的环境库兹涅茨曲线呈现出一条递增的直线;工业废水排放量的环境库兹涅茨曲线呈现出一条＂倒N型＂（＂U型＂＋＂倒U型＂）曲线;工业废气排放量环境库兹涅茨曲线近似＂倒U型＂曲线的左半段。也就是说,除工业废水排放量回归曲线出现拐点外,工业固体废物产生量与工业废气排放量仍处于上升期。

Selecting per capita GDP and industrial ＂three wastes＂ emissions statistics in our country from 1996 to 2008,establishing econometric model and analyzing the characteristics and causes of environmental Kuznets curve with SPSS software.The results showed that environmental Kuznets curve of industrial solid wastes emissions was a linear increase;environmental Kuznets curve of industrial waste water emissions was a ＂reverse N＂（＂U＂＋＂reverse U＂）curve;environmental Kuznets curve of industrial emissions was the left segment of ＂reverse U＂curve.In other words,in addition to industrial wastewater emissions regression curve appears inflection point,industrial solid wastes and industrial emissions still rise.