摘要
首先系统收集整理了通海地震灾区地震当年县区、公社、大队、小队各级行政单元的人口数量、震亡人数和所处烈度等级;然后计算各行政单元人员震亡比,得到了不同行政单元烈度震亡比矩阵,分析了不同行政单元震亡数、震亡比的空间分布特征;最后用回归分析方法研究了烈度震亡比关系,建立了Logist烈度震亡比模型。结果表明,通海地震烈度震亡比具有典型的非线性增长特征,所建烈度震亡比矩阵对云南农村和乡镇地区仍具有实用意义。
Firstly we collected the data of the population,caused death,and seismic intensity of the Ms 7.8 Tonghai earthquake-stricken area which includes 4 administrative levels such as county(or district),people's commune,production brigade and production team.Then we deduced the matrixes which describes the relation between the earthquake-caused death ratio and the seismic intensity at different level of administrative units and analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics of the earthquake-caused death number and death ratio in the administrative units.Finally the Logist model depicting the relation between the earthquake-caused death ratio and the seismic intensity was built up through regression analysis.It is found that the earthquake-caused death ratio features a typical nonlinear growth with the seismic intensity and the matrix is practical for the estimation of the earthquake casualties in the villages and towns in Yunnan in future.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第6期17-26,共10页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAK50B03-04)
关键词
通海7.8级地震
人员伤亡
震亡比
震亡比增长模型
云南
Ms 7.8 Tonghai earthquake
casualty
earthquake-caused death ratio
growth model of earthquake-caused death ratio
Yunnan