中国居民储蓄行为研究

Analysis of Chinese Saving Behavior

一、引言近年来，中国居民的储蓄行为出现了以下三个值得研究的问题。第一，在收入增长速度逐渐放慢的情况下，中国居民储蓄余额仍以每年２０％左右的速度高速增长。截止１９９８年底，中国城乡居民年末储蓄余额已经达到了５３４０７亿元。为了确保中国经济的快速增长，如...

AbstractRecently,there are three interesting facts emerging about Chinese saving behavior. The first fact is the high growth rate of outstanding amount of Chinese saving deposit(approximately 20% annually). Second,Chinese households are inertial to the change of interest rates. Third,although many empirical studies show that returns to education in China are quite low ,the first purpose of Chinese saving is for the education of children according to several investigations. In this paper,I find that precautionary saving hypothesis can explain well the above three facts. Increasing uncertainty of future income induces Chinese households to save more for precaution. Income uncertainty also weakens the effect of stimulating consumption by decreasing interest rates. Because education can reduce the future income uncertainty,lots of Chinese households choose children ′s education as their first purpose of saving.