中国人口转变、城市化和产业结构演变的对应关系研究

The corresponding relationships between the demographic transition,urbanization process,and industrial development of China

中国的人口转变过程、城市化曲线和产业结构演变都可以划分为四个阶段。在理论上,人口转变、城市化和产业发展的四个阶段大体对应。但是由于计划生育的缘故,我国的人口转变过程提前了,而城市化和工业化都没有跟上步伐,三个发展过程步调不尽一致。目前,中国人口转变处于第三阶段后期,即出生率逐步降低和低死亡率的阶段。但是城市化过程处于第二阶段,即城市化水平快速上升阶段;产业结构演变也处于第二阶段,即第二产业主导的快速工业化阶段。相对于城市过程和产业化过程,中国人口将会提前进入老龄化阶段。这会对我国城乡人口未来的生活造成巨大影响。城市老龄人口的基础设施问题,乡村老年人口的赡养问题等,都需要结合城市化和产业化的具体特征提前考虑应对策略。

A theory on the corresponding relationships between the industrialization（I）,urbanization（U）,and demographic transition（D）,is presented and the framework is termed as IUD model in this paper.Based on the logistic function,the urbanization curve is divided into four stages： initial state,acceleration stage,deceleration stage,and terminal stage.This presents a striking contrast to R.M.Northam＇s urbanization curve which was divided into three phases in 1979.The four stages of urbanization remind us of the demographic transition model（DTM） which includes four phases： high stationary phase,early expanding phase,late expanding phase,and low stationary phase.In fact,industrial development can also be divided into four stages： agricultural stage,pre-industrial stage,post-industrial stage,and informational stage.A new principle is advanced as follows.Because of interaction and coupling relationships between industrialization,urbanization,and demographic transition,the four stages of urbanization should coincide with the four stages of industrial structure change,and with the four phases of demographic transition.If not,there are some disharmonious factors in the socio-economic systems,which should be revealed and removed or treated properly.The corresponding theory is then applied to China,and the processes of industrialization,urbanization,and demographic transition are studied by using the statistical data.From 1949 to 2008,China＇s industrialization and urbanization went from the first stage into the second stage,and are in the second stage now.However,because of the strict policy of family planning,the demographic transition went from the second stage into the third stage.On the whole,the speed of industrialization is faster than that of urbanization to a certain extent,but the speed of demographic transition is much faster than that of both industrialization and urbanization.A conclusion can be drawn as follows.The problem of population ageing will come into being ahead of schedule in comparison with industrialization and urbanization.Twenty years later,the so-called ＂demographic dividend＂ will become a ＂demographic divider＂,a real population burden for developing industries and cities.The countermeasures and precautions should be researched and taken in advance against the socio-economic syndrome resulting from aging population.