中国省域能源资源与经济增长关系的实证分析——基于“资源诅咒”假说

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Energy Resource and Economic Growth in Provinces of China—Based on "Resource Curse" Hypothesis

我国的能源资源分布和经济发展水平都存在着明显的地区差异。论文选取一次能源生产量和对外依存度两个解释变量作为资源丰裕度指标,用中国30个省区1997—2007年的数据建立面板回归模型(因资料限制,未计算西藏、香港、澳门和台湾),分析近10多年来我国能源资源与经济增长的关系,讨论"资源诅咒"假说在我国的适用性。结果表明,两个解释变量与经济发展速度的关系都说明了能源资源对经济增长的负效应,即存在"资源诅咒"现象。但回归系数的绝对值很小,说明"资源诅咒"的效应不明显。并且这种负效应随着时间的推移而减小,反映了"资源诅咒"现象不具有长期性,在我国已渐趋淡化。特别是一些能源资源大省如内蒙古和山东已经破解了"资源诅咒",经济增长呈快速上升趋势。这启示我们,只要通过有效的政策、技术手段,改善资源富集地区的发展基础和制度安排,可以避免"资源诅咒"效应的产生。

There are great regional differences in the distribution of energy resource and economic development level in China.We selected two explanatory variables including primary energy output and external dependence degree of energy as the resource abundance index,and established the panel regression model based on the data of 30 provinces（not including Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan due to no data） from 1997 to 2007.Then we analyzed the relation between energy resource and economic growth in recent ten years,and demonstrated whether the ＂resource curse＂ hypothesis is applicable in China.The results showed that energy resources bring about the negative effect on economic growth,namely,the existence of the ＂resource curse＂ phenomenon.However,the absolute value of regression coefficient is very small,that means there is unobvious ＂resource curse＂ effect.Moreover,the negative effect decreases over time,indicating this phenomenon has being faded out.Specially,some provinces with abundant energy such as Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Shandong Province,have cracked the ＂resource curse＂,whose economy increases rapidly.It implicated that the ＂resource curse＂ effect could be avoided,only if foundation for development and institutional arrangements are improved effectively by policy and technique measures in regions with abundant energy resource.