能源保障风险综合评价指标体系研究——以煤炭和石油为例

Study on the Comprehensive Appraisal Index System for Energy Security Risk:A Case of Coal and Oil

能源保障风险综合指标体系研究是能源保障风险评价的基础工作和重要内容。其中,煤炭和石油作为我国能源供给与消费的主体,其保障风险源于资源、生产、运输、市场和消费五大方面。煤炭和石油保障风险的综合评价实质上,是在对各风险源产生风险可能性展开评估的基础上进行集成和综合,进而形成煤炭和石油保障综合风险指数。本文借鉴有关风险研究的综合评价方法,运用层次分析模型,形成由目标层、准则层、子准则层和指标层等4个层次、共14个指标的保障风险识别与评估指标体系,并构建了煤炭和石油保障综合风险度,以及各风险源风险度的评价模型。根据评价模型计算得到的煤炭和石油保障综合风险度指数(ESCR I),在此基础上对煤炭和石油保障风险进行综合的等级划分,并将其风险可能性划分为极低、低、中、高、极高5个级别。这一研究结果可在煤炭和石油保障风险乃至在整个能源保障风险评估与管理中,为辨识、预测和应对风险提供理论与方法上的参考。

Studies on the comprehensive index system are foundational works and important contents for energy security risk appraising.Coal and oil are the principal part of energy supply and consumption in China.The security risk sources of coal and oil come from five aspects,i.e.resources,production,transportation,market and consumption.In fact,the comprehensive appraisal for security risk of coal and oil is the integration and synthesis of possibility assessments based on the risk sources mentioned above.After that,the comprehensive risk index of coal and oil is obtained.Based on hierarchical analysis model and comprehensive appraisal methods used in relative researches,an index system with 4 layers（i.e.target layer,guideline layer,sub-criteria layer and the index layer） and 14 indexes is established,the comprehensive risk degrees are determined,and a risk degree assessment model for the risk sources is built.By calculation of the assessment model,the coal and oil security comprehensive risk index（ESCRI） is brought about.Furthermore,an integrated grade of security risk for coal and oil is divided,which,including 5 levels of risk possibilities,i.e.very low,low,medium,high and very high.The results of this study are helpful for assessment and management of security risk for coal and oil,or even for all kinds of energy.And this paper suggests an example both theoretically and methodically for identification,prediction and responds to risks.