信贷约束、政府消费与中国实际经济周期

Credit Constraints,Government Consumption and Real Business Cycle in China

改革开放以来我国经济周期表现出某些既不同于发达国家,也不同于发展中国家和新兴市场国家的特征:一方面我国居民消费波动的幅度大于产出波动;另一方面,我国的就业波动较为平滑而投资和资本波动过大。本文试图从信贷约束的角度解释我国经济周期的特征事实。为此,本文建立了一个RBC模型。通过引入异质性消费者和异质性厂商以及部分消费者和部分厂商在金融市场上所面临的信贷约束,该模型考察了信贷约束这一传导机制对我国经济周期的影响。另外,鉴于我国政府在宏观经济调控中的重要影响力,模型还引入了政府消费,以反映政府支出对消费者和厂商的外生冲击。通过比较分析模型的多个模拟结果,本文发现:信贷约束是解释中国经济波动特征的一个重要传导机制,而政府消费冲击则是一个重要的波动源。

Since initiation of the reform and opening-up policy, the business cycle in China has been characterized with certain stylized facts different from those beth in the developed countries and developing countries and emerging economies. Firstly, China＇s household consumption fluctuates more than its output. Secondly, China＇s employment tluctuation is smooth while the investment and capital stock are much more volatile. This paper tries to explain the features of China＇ s business cycle from the perspective of credit constraint. To do so, we establish a RBC model incorporating heterogeneous consumers and heterogeneous firms. In this model, part of the consumers and firms are subject to the credit constraint due to the imperfect financial market. We thus study the implication of credit constraint to China＇ s business cycle. In respect of the omnipresence and omnipotence of China＇ s governaaent in macroeconomic management, we introduce the government consumption into the model. This enables us to capture the impact of the government consumption shock to consumers and firms. Based on the simulation results, this paper finds： in regard to China＇s business cycle, credit constraint is an important transmission mechanism, and government consumption is a momentous source of fluctuation we should not ignore.