摘要
本文设计了一个将外来人口纳入城镇养老保障体系的人口与财政收支模型,能够使用包括参保率、教育程度分布和替代率等多套参数来拟合政策路径并模拟养老金收支的改善情况。文中定量计算了2009～2025年提高外来人口养老保障覆盖率对上海养老金的收支改善,用其占当年财政收入的比重表示,并计算了不同调整目标与调整路径的改善效果与临界成本。
This paper provides a better tool for the follow-up study.This demographic and financial mode model has multiple sets of parameters including the insurance coverage,years of education,replacement rates,which could change to fit the possible policy path.Through the quantitative calculation of pension income,this paper simulates the improvement of the balance of payments measured by the proportion of the city revenue within 2009 to 2025 by increasing the pension system coverage on floating population,calculates the critical costs of different objectives and paths.
出处
《人口与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第6期40-46,共7页
Population & Economics
关键词
城镇养老保险
外来人口
参保率
仿真
urban pension system
floating population
coverage
simulation
