宏观经济波动对工业所有制结构的影响——“国进民退”的回顾与前瞻

Effects of Macroeconomic Fluctuation on Industrial Ownership Structure:Review and Prediction of the Rise of State Ownership and Reduction of Private Ownership

本文利用1998—2008年的样本数据,通过实证方法研究宏观经济波动对工业所有制结构的影响,结果表明经济增长速度、货币存量、出口增长率以及通货膨胀与国有工业比重下降速度均呈负相关关系,这说明"国进民退"是宏观经济景气度影响的结果。因此,我们认为宏观调控政策应从优化国有与非国有企业的融资环境、对微观结构影响的程度等方面去改善国有与非国有工业企业的经营环境。

Using the sample data from 1998 to 2008, this paper researches the effects of fluctuation on industrial ownership structure by econometric analysis. The result proves that economic growth, M2, export growth and inflation have a negative effect on the decreasing speed of state - owned industrial economy, and it shows that expansion in some industries and some areas of state - owned companies are caused by the downturn of macroeconomic situation. In order to improve the business environment of private companies, policy recommendations including improving financial circumstance for private companies, paying attention to the effects of macroeconomic policies on microeconomic structure.