摘要
本文给出了PARMA模型的似然函数及模型参数的估计方法,引入了观测方程构成改进模型,并提出了偏态修正方法。用该模型生成了井岗山梯级水电站一级坝址处旬径流序列。
In this paper, the likelihood function and parameter estimation for periodic autoregressive-moving average (PARMA)model are given. An observation equation is added to constitute a modified PARMA model and the method for the skew-revision is also presented. The synthetic decade flow time series for the first dam site of the Jing-Gang Mountain Cascade hydropower stations is generated by the techniques.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
1990年第1期27-36,共10页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
水文序列
水库
PARMA模型
生成法
likelihood function, parameter estimation, decade runoff time series, deviation updating.
