基于数值预报产品的温度客观预报集成模式的建立

Establishment of Objective Forecasts Integration Mode of Temperature Based on Numerical Forecast Products

利用泰安市2009年4月1日至2010年3月31日逐日最高气温和最低气温实况资料和T639、mm5、天气在线数值预报产品中最高气温和最低气温对应日的预报值、EC(欧洲中心)的数值预报产品中最高气温和最低气温对应日的预报值的订正值及1961—2010年逐日平均最高气温和最低气温平均值,以5家预报产品作为因子,采用多元回归方法,建立温度客观预报集成模式,为提高温度预报准确率提供依据。

The actual data of the daily maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures in Tai＇an from April 1,2009 to March 31,2010,the forecast values of the maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures for the corresponding days in T639,mm5 and weather online-numericalforecast products, the correction values of the forecast values of the maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures for the corresponding days in the numerical forecast products of the EC （European Center）, and the mean values of the daily averages of the maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures from 1961 to 2010, the above five forecast products were utilized as the the factor,was established adopting the multiple regression method to establish a temperature objective-forecast integration mode was established, to provide a basis for raising the rate of accuracy of temperature forecast.