综合利用水库运行管理的多目标风险分析

MULTIOBJECTIVE RISK ANALYSIS OF MULTIPURPOSE RESERVOIR OPERATION

本文建立了一个分解——集结模型对综合利用水库运行管理进行多目标风险分析。模型由防洪系统联合运行的动态规划子模型、水库兴利运行的随机动态规划子模型及多目标动态规划集结模型等三部份组成。利用这个模型分析了丹江口水库运行中防洪与兴利、发电与灌溉的矛盾,找出了防洪、发电和灌溉效益转换关系,提出了协调矛盾的水库长期运行的建议方案。模拟结果表明:建议的水库运行方案在防洪、发电和灌溉三方面都优于现行方案。

A decomposition aggregation model that consists of the flood routing submodels, the reservoir operation submodels and the multiobjective dynamic programming aggregation model is developed for the multiobjective risk analysis of the multipurpose reservoir operation. The model is applied to the Danjiangkou Reservoir on a tributary of the Yangtze River. A trade-off among competing objectives that are flood risk, expected value of annual energy production and irrigation reliability is obtained and a best-compromise solution is suggested. The results of simulation shows that the suggested reservoir operating policy results in significant improvement over the present operating policy on the all objectives of the reservoir operation.