1956～2008辽宁省近53年的降水量变化

The precipitation changes in Liaoning during 1956-2008

利用国家气候中心提供的辽宁省8市8个气象观测站近53年(1956～2008年)的逐月降水时间序列,分别计算了平均降水量、汛期降水量和距平,运用气候倾向率、累积距平法和Mann-Kendall非参数检验法,分析了近54年辽宁省的降水变化特征与趋势,结果表明:1)近53年来,辽宁省的平均降水量呈现下降的趋势,降水日数和汛期降水量也同样表现减少的趋势。2)年代际变化的整体波动不大,从20世纪60年代到2000年以后,辽宁省降水量大致经历了:多-多-少-多-少的过程。3)辽宁省降水量的季节分配很不均匀,除春季降水量呈增加的趋势外,夏、秋、冬三个季节都略下降。其中夏季和秋季存在明显的振荡周期。

According to the times series of mean monthly precipitation from 8 weather stations of 8 cities in Liaoning Province from 1956 to 2008,with climatic liner trend,accumulated variance analysis and Mann-Kendall trend methods,the average precipitation,flood season precipitation and anomaly of precipitation were calculated, the characters and trends of precipitation in Liaoning in recent 53 years were analyzed. The result showed： ① in recent 53 years,the average precipitation in Liaoning displayed decline trend,so did the rainning days and the flood season precipitation. ② the whole fluctuation of times change is weak. From the 60s 20th century to now, the precipitation almost experienced such a process： many-many-few-many-few. ③ It＇s not symmetrical that the seasonal distribution of precipitation in Liaoning,the precipitation of summer,autumn and winter showed decline trends except for spring. Among them,there was apparent oscillation cycle in summer and autumn.