榆林市用水经济增长弹性变化规律及其驱动因素分析

Characteristics and Driving Forces of Water Use and Economic Elasticity of Yulin City

通过分析榆林市1990-2005年社会经济用水量与经济发展之间的关系,计算得出榆林市1990-2005年社会经济用水相对于GDP的用水经济增长弹性均值为0.196,表明当榆林市经济增长1%时,社会经济用水量约增加0.2%,同时从多年变化可以看出榆林市用水经济弹性变化过程呈下降趋势。结合榆林市水资源开发利用现状,认为技术进步和管理水平提高造成用水定额减少和产业结构调整是用水经济弹性下降的主要原因,并从用水经济弹性的概念出发,定量计算了二者的大小。结果表明:1990-2005年榆林市用水经济弹性受产业结构调整影响较大,其影响量达0.048,影响率达58.8%;用水定额变化影响相对较小,为0.034,影响率为41.2%。建议在以后的工作中,应不断加强产业结构优化和节水技术方面的研究,通过对需水的合理限制,从需求方面进行管理,这对缓解当地水资源供需矛盾,确保能源化工基地长远发展具有重要意义。

Yulin is a place where has a serious shortage of water resources in northwest of China.With the development of economic construction in recent years,the problem has been becoming more serious than ever before.The shortage of water resources even restrained the development of economic.In this paper,we analyzed the water use and economic elasticity by the dates from 1990 to 2005,which is relationship between socio-economic and water consumption.The results showed that the average water use and economic elasticity is 0.196,that is to say when economyof Yulin increases by 1%,then water consumption will rise 0.2 percent.At the same time,we can see that the change of water use and economic elasticity in Yulin have a decline trend.According to the situation of Yulin city,we can learn that it is the results of industrial structure adjustment and the technology and management innovation,which caused the decline of average water use quota,then the contribution of those two factors are quantitatively analyzed.Results showed that water use and economic elasticity of Yulin in 1990-2005 is more impacted by industrial structure adjustment,the amount is 0.048,accounting for 58.8%,and the amount of technology and management innovation is 0.034,accounting for 41.2%.At last,we suggest that there should be more researches to be done in the optimize the industrial structure and water-saving technologies,through the reasonable restrictions under the principles of demand side management,to realize the balance of water supply and demand in chemical energy base in the long-term.