基于模糊物元的煤层气高产富集区预测——以沁水盆地为例

Prediction of prolific CBM zones with the fuzzy matter element method:A case study of the Qinshui Basin

沁水盆地煤层气开发的后备区块准备不足,需要开展煤层气有利富集区块的优选工作。为此,分析了影响沁水盆地高产富集的关键因素:煤层厚度、实测含气量、含气饱和度、原始渗透率、煤层海拔深度、临界解吸压力、水文地质条件等;采用模糊物元评价方法,利用生产现场资料结合实验室测试数据,绘制出了量化指标预测等值线,并分析了不同地区煤层气高产的可能性。依据评价结果,优选出阳泉—寿阳、长子—屯留、沁水北—安泽和阳城北等4个煤层气产能建设的后备区块(其中又以阳城北有利区与阳泉—寿阳南有利区高产的潜力最大),为沁水盆地煤层气后期的勘探开发提供了目标区。

In order to predict prolific CBM zones in the Qinshui Basin,this paper analyzes the key factors influencing the enrichment of CBM,including coalbed thickness,true gas content,gas saturation,primary permeability,coal layer buried depth,critical desorption pressure,and hydrogeological conditions,etc..Based on the field data combined with laboratory test data,the fuzzy matter-element evaluation method is used to generate contours of quantitative index,by use of which the possibilities of high CBM production in different blocks in the Qinshui Basin are evaluated in detail.According to the evaluation results,four blocks there are selected as the favorable targets for future CBM exploration and development,namely,Yangquan-Shouyang,Changzhi-Tunliu,North Qinshui-Anze,and North Yangcheng,among which the first and the last blocks have the greatest potential.