摘要
风险度量是风险管理的基础,提出适合大型工程项目风险的风险度量方法.针对大型工程项目风险因素、风险信息、风险损失之间的复杂联系,构建大型工程项目风险网络,分别采用贝叶斯网络推理和网络层次分析法获得风险发生概率和风险量的估计,从而提出基于风险网络的大型工程项目风险度量方法.方法将风险损失量和风险损失发生概率进行了明确合理的结合,既可用于度量客观风险,也可用于度量主观风险.最后以槽菁头隧道施工风险管理为例说明该方法的具体应用步骤和效果.
Risk measure is the basis of risk management.The paper aims to bring forward a risk measurement method that suitable of the risk of large-scale projects.Focusing on the complex links among risk factors,risk information and the risk of loss,large-scale projects risk network is built.And the paper makes a mixed use of Bayesian network inference and network analysis to obtain the level of risk probability and the severity of risk.Then a large-scale projects risk assessment method is proposed based on the risk network of the project. This method makes a clear and reasonable combination of the amount of risk loss and the loss probability,and it can be used to measure the objective risk as well as to measure subjective risk.Finally,the paper takes Cao-Jing-Tou tunnel risk management as an example to illustrate the application of this risk measurement method and its effectiveness.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第22期107-114,共8页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
SWJTUCX090
关键词
工程项目
风险度量
风险网络
隧道
〈Keyword〉project
risk measurement
risk network
tunnel
