危机事件对中国入境旅游外汇收入影响评估

On the Assessment of the Impact of Crisis Events on the Foreign Exchange Earnings of China's Inbound Tourism

近些年,公共危机事件越发频繁和严重,对其准确评估对旅游业管理至关重要。文章用TRAMO/SEATS季节调整模型,将月度数据时间序列分解成趋势、季节和不规则波动,对旅游本底趋势线进行改进,并对危机事件造成中国2003年1月至2008年12月间的入境旅游外汇收入的损失进行评估,重点对2003年SARS所造成的巨大损失进行评估。结果显示:①模型对数据的拟合效果非常好,数据具有显著的趋势和季节特征,改进旅游本底线更合理。②2003年SARS共造成中国入境旅游外汇收入损失31.519亿美元,95%置信度的区间估计为[29.387,33.652],以往研究低估了损失。③2003年4～6月危机全面爆发并达鼎盛,2003年7～10月为危机的衰退期,2003年11月～2004年1月为危机的消亡期,此次危机持续了10个月。

With more frequent and serious occurance of public crisis events in recent years,an accurate assessment is most essential for the management of tourism industry.In this paper,the monthly data time series are decomposed into trend,seasonal and irregular fluctuations by using TRAMO/SEATS seasonal adjustment model.The theory of bottom trend line is improved and the losses caused by crisis events are assessed.The paper focuses on the losses of foreign exchange earnings of China＇s inbound tourism from January 2003 to December 2008.The results show： 1.the model fits the data very well and the data are of significant trend and seasonal feature,with more reasonable improvement of tourism bottom line.2.SARS in 2003 resulted in the losses of 3.1519 billion US dollars,with previous studies underestimating the losses.3.from April to June in 2003,the crisis reached peak period;from July to October in 2003,the crisis declined and died out from November 2003 to January 2004.The crisis lasted for 10 months.