铁路可持续发展评价体系研究

The evaluation system of railway sustainable development

从社会经济、运输能力及经济效益、能源消耗、安全可靠性、环境保护等方面建立铁路可持续发展的客观评价指标体系,采用层次分析法与模糊识别理论相结合的多级模糊综合评价方法进行计算,对我国铁路的可持续发展性进行纵向定量评价。纵向评价结果显示,当前我国铁路处于"弱可持续发展"级别,在可持续发展阶段中属于中等偏下状态。其中能源资源消耗状况处于基本可持续发展级别,显示了铁路运输方式的优势;但运输安全状况值得关注,需要增强对运输安全的管理和技术投入。

This paper conducts longitudinal quantitative risk evaluation on the sustainable development of our railway system from the perspectives of social economy,transportation capacity,economic efficiency,energy consumption,safety reliability and environmental protection,and based on the multiple fuzzy evaluation method（analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy recognition theory combined）.The results of longitudinal evaluation show that,the sustainable rate of our railway system is ＂inferior＂,ranking below average in the sustainable development stage.Among them,the consumption status is basically sustainable;while the transportation safety condition needs to be improved in aspects of management and technique input.