建德市肾综合征出血热GM(1,1)模型预测研究

Model Study on Morbidity of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Jiande County

为利用灰色模型ＧＭ（１，１）预测肾综合征出血热（ＨＦＲＳ）年发病率。采用建德市肾综合征血热１９７０～１９９７年年发病率资料建立ＧＭ（１，１）模型，预测１９９８～２００２年ＨＦＲＳ年发病率。结果表明实验预测阶段（１９９３～１９９７年）年发病率结果同实际值吻合，模型精度等级检验良好，能采用ＧＭ（１，１）模型预测１９９８～２００２年ＨＦＲＳ年发病率。表明ＧＭ（１，１）可作为一项快速和简便的方法预测ＨＦＲＳ发病情况，为控制ＨＦＲＳ流行提供一项辅助手段。

Objective:GM(1,1) model study on Morbidity forecasting of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome.Materials and Methods:GM(1,1) model applies to morbidity forecasting (1998 2002year)of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome with morbidity rate of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome form 1970 to 1997 year in Jiande county.Results:As forecasting of experimental results fit well with GM(1,1) model on morbidity of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome(1993 1997) and the morbidity forecasting Conclusion:GM(1,1) model could be a rapid and practical method for forecasting of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome epidemic and help to control its epidemic.