我国技术性贸易壁垒的贸易效应——基于行业数据的经验研究

Trade Effects of Technical Barriers to Trade——An Empirical Investigation to China based on Industrial Level Data

技术性贸易壁垒目前使用频繁,其有别于传统贸易壁垒之处在于同时具有贸易限制和贸易促进效应。由于性质复杂和数据难以获得,技术性贸易壁垒被认为是"可以想象到的最难量化的非关税贸易壁垒之一"。本文计算了我国1998～2006年对HS2位数产品进行技术性贸易壁垒进口监管的频数比率,并基于双边贸易数据和重力模型实证检验了我国技术性贸易壁垒等进口监管政策的贸易效应。总体检验发现,技术性贸易壁垒和关税是调控我国进口贸易流量的有效手段。基于行业的分组检验发现,技术性贸易壁垒对农产品行业具有显著的贸易抑制作用,但是,对工业制成品行业反而具有贸易促进作用,而其他传统贸易壁垒并未表现出这种贸易效应的行业差异。最后,本文在实证结论的基础上提出了相关的政策建议。

Technical barriers to trade（TBT） are now widespread, different from any other trade measures, TBT have both trade promotion and trade restriction effects. Due to their theoretical complexity and data scarcity, TBT have been considered as ＂one of the most difficult NTBs imaginable to quantify＂. In this paper, we calculate a series of frequency ratio at HS2-digit-level from 1998 to 2006 to examine how TBT and other import control measures imposed by China influence the country＇s bilateral trade. Then based on the empirical findings derived from the gravity model, we draw some policy implications.