网络直复营销目标客户的优化模型——基于马尔代夫链的一种尝试

The Target Customer Resource Optimization Model Research in Internet Direct Marketing Which are Based on Markov Chains Theory

网络直复营销的实时沟通性、交互数据的易取得性及其低成本性,使其成为当前企业的重要营销工具,提高网络直复营销活动的响应率和收益率也成为了营销领域研究的热点。本文在将RFM这种简单的客户响应分析方法与马尔可夫链结合的基础上,利用P[τ>Tr,s,α<β,X=(x,t,T)]计算顾客在各个消费时间段f和各个购买频率的购买概率,并最终建立了网络直复营销中的目标客户资源优化模型。研究结果表明,模型克服了当前目标客户资源优化模型研究中对模型适用的条件要求较高的缺陷,模型通过马尔可夫转移矩逐步修改其负向收益状态,并对边缘状态值进行验证,通过只对最终收益为正的顾客提供营销资源,对最终收益为正之外的顾客要停止对其的营销资源投入,达到对于网络直复营销中目标客户优化及提升企业可获得利润率的作用。

Internet Direct Marketing＇communication in real time, easy access to interactive data and it＇s low cost make it become enterprises＇important marketing tool. Improving Internet Direct Marketing＇s response rates and profitability also become a research hotspot in the field of marketing. Based on combining RFM response analysis method with Markov Chain theory, using P[τ〉T｜r,s,α〈β,X=（x,t,T）] to compute customer＇s purchase probability in each time period and each purchase frequency. At last, the target customer resource optimization model is established. This model overcomes current target customer resource optimization model＇s shortcoming which need a high applying requirement. Through modifying Markov transition matrix＇s negative profit state step by step, and verifying the borderline state value, this model can only provide marketing resources for positive profit customers, and stop providing marketing resources for customers outside of the positive profit customers. By this way, the target customer resource optimization in the internet directing marketing is finished and enterprises can also improve their gettable earnings.