分割多目标风险模型及其在水电工程中的应用

The Partition Multiple Target Risk Model and Its Application to Hydropower Projects

水电工程风险量化分析普遍采用风险期望值模型,这将导致高损失低概率与低损失高概率的计算结果可能相同。分割多目标风险法(PMRM)给定分割概率,计算给定概率范围内的条件概率,得到多种风险函数,最后将这些风险函数加入到风险决策模型的目标函数中进行风险决策。在湖北鄂坪面板堆石坝施工度汛中,应用分割多目标风险方法,计算不同措施组合的风险,结果合理,能克服传统风险期望值模型的缺点,能为决策者提供科学依据。

The risk expected value model has widely been used for risk quantization analysis of a hydropower project,which will lead to that the calculation result of high loss and low probability would likely be the same as that of low loss and high probability.The partition multiple target risk method(PMRM) gives the partition probability and the calculation gives the condition probability,from which various risk functions are obtained,and then these risk functions are added to the target functions of the risk decision-making model to make a risk decision.The partition multiple target risk method was used to calculate the risks of the combinations of different measures in tiding over floods during construction of the Eping concrete face rockfill dam in Hubei Province,and the results proved rational,which can overcome the shortcomings of the traditional risk expected value model and provide the scientific basis for decision makers.