关于发电设备利用小时数的分析

Analysis on the Generating Equipment Availability Hours in China

分析了1978年以来我国发电设备利用小时数的变化特点及影响因素,探讨了2009年发电设备利用小时数下降和电力供需偏紧共存的主要原因。发电设备利用小时的变化同电力需求增长、电源装机总量增长及其结构调整、网间交易电量增长、电网负荷特性等因素密切相关。随着市场竞争的不断激化、清洁能源的大力发展,拉动发电设备利用小时数上升和下降的因素并存,未来发电设备利用小时数仍将呈波动变化态势。对避免发电设备利用小时数大幅波动提出了相关建议。

This paper analyzes the average utilization hours and their affecting factors of power generation equipment in China since 1978. It also explores the main causes for the decline of the average utilization hours of generation equipment and the tight situation of power supply and demand in 2009. The variation of utilization hours of generation equipment is closely related to the power demand, the increase of total installed capacities of power sources and their structural adjustment, the transaction increase between power grids, and load characteristics of power grids. Intensification of market competition and development of clean energy will produce the driving factors that may increase or reduce the utilization hours of power generating facilities. So the utilization hours of power generating facilities will still fluctuate in the future. Some suggestions are proposed to avoid large fluctuation of utilization hours.