高等教育规模波动与经济波动协调性的实证分析——基于GER与人均国内生产总值的考察

An Empirical Analysis of the Coordination between Higher Education Scale Fluctuation and Economic Fluctuation——Based on the Investigation of GER and GDP Per Capita

利用灰色关联等维代谢模型（GM（1,1））对我国扩招十年来高等教育规模波动与经济波动的协调关系进行回归分析,以高等教育毛入学率与人均国内生产总值为具体分析单元,建构高等教育规模波动与经济波动的灰色协整预测模型,精度检验显示所建GM（1,1）模型拟合值与实际值、预测值与规划值误差较小,灰色关联度较高,符合灰色建模理论,可以为我国经济和高等教育发展规划提供科学预测和理论诠释。

Using the Grey Relational Equal-dimension Metabolic Models（GM（1,1））,the regression analysis of coordination relationship between the higher education scale fluctuation and economic fluctuation in recent ten years in China was made in this paper.GER and GDP per capita as the concrete analytical unit is used to construct the grey co-integration prediction model of higher education scale fluctuation and economic fluctuation.The precision inspection shows that fitted values and actual values,predictive values and planning values of the GM（1,1） have low errors and high grey correlation,which accord with the grey modeling theory to supply scientific prediction and theoretical explanation for economic and higher educational development plan.