农牧交错带以农为主区科技进步对农业用地变化影响——以武川县为例

Scientific and Technological Progress Impacts on Agricultural Land Use Change in Farming-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Farming Area——A Case of Wuchuan Country

笔者以农牧交错带的核心地区内蒙古呼和浩特市武川县为研究区,利用多元统计学方法建立了武川县农业用地利用变化的驱动力模型,对武川县农业用地利用变化的科技进步驱动因子及其作用机理和过程进行分析。结果表明:近十年间武川县农业用地面积变化整体上处于减少趋势,科技进步是武川县农业用地面积变化的主导因素。通过线性回归分析,农业用地面积变化与农药使用量呈显著正相关,与水果产量呈显著负相关。

This paper will take Wuchuan in Hohhot,Inner Mongolia autonomous region,which is the core area of Farming-Pastoral Transition Zone,as the study area,using multiple statistical methods to establish the driving force model of Wuchuan County agricultural land use change.It analyzes driving factors of scientific and technological progress and mechanism and process of agricultural land changes in Wuchuan County.The results show that over the past decade,the area of agricultural land in the overall decreasing trend in Wuchuan County,Scientific and technological progress is dominant factor on the area of agricultural land changes in Wuchuan County.By linear regression analysis show that the area of agricultural land changes are significantly positively correlated with the use of pesticides,and it is significantly negatively correlated with fruit production.