性别失衡风险的社会放大与政府危机应对:一个分析模型

Construction and Application of the Social Amplification Model of Risks in Gender Imbalanced Society in China

基于中国社会转型和性别失衡共存的情景,及现有研究特别是风险放大理论和模型的局限,本文首先描述性别失衡的风险如何由人口放大到公共安全、由个体放大到社会的过程,并分析性别失衡风险与社会转型风险间的作用机制;其次,进一步扩展性别失衡背景下社会风险放大框架,构建了中国性别失衡风险的多维交叉社会放大模型并利用二手数据对模型进行了局部验证,揭示出性别失衡风险的社会放大路径。最后,提出政府基于风险四级放大途径的危机应对措施。

Under the background of social transformation and imbalanced gender structure in China, and based on the limited studies in this field especially the lack of available theory and model to explain the social risk amplification in the context, this paper firstly describes the process of gender imbalanced risks being amplified from individuals to society, as well as from popula- tion to public safety; Secondly, the paper proposes a multi - dimensional interactive framework for social amplification of gender imbalanced risks based on the framework of social risks amplification in gender imbalanced society, and partly testi- fies that framework by means of relevant data and materials and thus explores the principal social amplifying path of gender imbalanced risks. Finally, some advices are proposed to response to risks based on four amplifying pathways.