中国生产性能源消费量变动的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Decomposition to the Change of Production Energy Consumption in China

应用完全因素分解模型对中国1985年到2008年生产性能源消费量的变动进行分解。能源消费量的变动分解为三种效应:由于整体经济的增长带来的经济规模效应、产业结构变动带来的结构效应和技术进步的效率效应。实证结果表明:24年来,实际GDP带来的经济规模效应是使得能源消费不断上升的最主要因素;效率效应的作用与经济规模效应相反,效率效应对于控制能源消费的增长起到了较大并且积极的作用;产业结构的调整对能源消费的控制并没有起到积极的作用。

Complete Decomposition Model（CDM）is used to decompose changes in industrial energy consumption in the period 1985~2008.The change in energy consumption is decomposed into the intensity effect,the structural effect and the activity effect which comes from the scale of economic activity.The following result are found.To the change in energy consumption,a rapid increase in real GDP has the greatest effect.Oppositely,the intensity effect also made a great contribution to decrease the energy consumption,but this effect is smaller than activity effect.The structural effect was always positive during the period to enhance the energy consumption.