台湾地区中间选民投票行为分析

Analysis on Median Voters' Voting Behavior of Taiwan Region

政治学理论认为,两党制国家或地区的选民结构中存有大量中间选民,其投票行为较为理性,且可左右选举结果。但在台湾地区领导人选举中,中间选民不仅数量偏少,成分复杂,其投票行为也较为分歧。本文在试图厘清台湾地区中间选民概念、类别的基础上,进一步分析了1996年以来台湾地区领导人选举中间选民的人口特征、投票行为及影响其投票取向的主要变量。

Political science theory holds that there are a lot of Median voters in two-party countries or regions,whose voting behavior are more rational,and playing a key role to the election results.But in the Taiwan Leader＇s Elections,not only the number of Median Voters is less,but also the composition is more complex,and the voting behavior is more diverse.On the bases of trying to clarify the concept and category of Median Voters in Taiwan,this paper further to analysis the demographic characteristics,voting behavior and the primary variable affecting voting behavior of Median Voters in the Taiwan Leader＇s Elections since 1996.