货币政策的有效性评估——基于货币状况指数的分析

Evaluation of Monetary Policy Validity——Analysis with Monetary Condition Index

货币政策传导过程中的"梗阻"和"渗漏"效应使得政策效果与政策意图常常不一致,而包含货币信贷量在内的货币状况指数则能够对各种政策工具的实施效果进行有效评估。本文的结论主要有四点:一是我国的汇率工具对经济增长并不具有直接影响,但对物价水平则具有强于利率调控的政策力度;二是在常用的信贷、汇率和利率三种政策工具中,信贷不仅对经济增长更具政策力度,还在控制物价水平上更具影响力;三是在实际货币状况指数和名义货币状况指数中,实际货币状况指数的适用性更为优越;四是1992～2008年各年的货币政策在大部分年份是有效的,其中货币政策在2007年对经济增长无效,对通货膨胀有效,而在2008年对经济增长和通货膨胀均有效。

The effect of ＂obstruction＂ and ＂leakage＂ in the conductive process of monetary policy makes the implement results inconsistent with its intention.The monetary condition index including the variable of loan can evaluate the validity of every kind of monetary instruments.This paper draws some conclusions as following：firstly,exchange rate has no direct effects on economy growth,but influences price more than interest rate does;secondly,among policy instruments include credit,exchange rate and interest rate,credit makes more effects both to economy growth and price;thirdly,RMCI（real monetary condition index） is more applicable than NMCI（real monetary condition index）;fourthly,monetary policies implemented from year 1992 to 2008 were valid in most years.Policies in 2007 were not effective to economy growth but effective to inflation while in 2008 were effective both to economy growth and inflation.