中国—东盟自由贸易区的环境效应研究

Research on Environment Effect in China-ASEAN Free Trade Area

中国—东盟自由贸易区的全面启动,将给双方的经济发展带来前所未有的机遇。但与此同时,在这样一个由经济发展水平不高但增速很快的发展中国家组成的自由贸易区,给双方乃至世界的环境保护提出了严峻的挑战。中国—东盟自由贸易区的最直接最突出的经济效应是贸易的创造效应与投资的增长效应,贸易的规模环境效应首先表现为环境的负效应,而环境的正效应比较间接迟缓。贸易的结构效应表现出很大的不确定性,但投资的结构效应以环境的负效应为主。贸易与投资的技术效应会在双方的环保合作力度加强的条件下逐步倾向于环境的正效应。中国与东盟之间要加强环境问题的双边与多边协作,不断强化公众的环保意识,大力推进经济结构的调整与优化。

The overall start of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area（CAFTA）will bring unprecedented opportunities of economic development for both sides.But meanwhile,within such a free trade area made up of developing countries with low economic development level but at fast growing speed,both China and ASEAN coutries are confronting with severe challenges of environment protection.The most direct and prominent economic effects are creative effect of trade and growing effect of investment,the scale environment effect of trade firstly presents as the environment negative effect,and the positive effect is relatively indirect and tardy.The trade structure effect shows a great uncertainty,but the invest structure effects are mainly negative to environment.The technique effect of trade and investment gradually tends to be positive to environment under the stronger environment protection cooperation of both sides.China and ASEAN countries should strengthen the bilateral and multilateral coordination on the issue of environment,reinforce the environment protection awareness of the public,and promote the adjustment and optimization of economic structure.