四川巴中地区38年来气候变化特征分析

Analysis on the Characteristics of Climate Change in Bazhong Sichuan Province in Recent 38 Years

利用1971-2008年巴中地区4个站点的地面常规观测资料和滑动平均、MK法及MHF小波分析等统计诊断方法,分析了该地区降水和温度的年际、年代际的气候变化特征。结果表明:巴中地区的年均气温总体上表现出暖→冷→暖3个阶段,并呈现出8年的准周期变化特征;冬春气温的年代际变化显示出暖→冷→暖3个阶段性特征,而夏秋气温的年代际变化则显示出暖→冷→暖→冷4个阶段性特征。巴中地区的年降水量呈现出减少的趋势,递减率为13.813mm/10年;春季降水量低于全国的春季平均水平,夏、秋季平均降水量均高于全国的平均水平,且占到全年降水量的80%以上。巴中地区的年降水量存在较为显著的2年和6年的准周期变化,降水量增加和减少的突变较多显示出其复杂性。春、夏、秋三季的降水量有随温度升高而下降的趋势,而冬季的降水量有随温度的升高先增多后减少的趋势。巴中气候特征的分析对巴中农业区划和生产安排有其重要意义。

Based on 38 years of the temperature and the precipitation distribution with the data of four weather stations in Bazhong, the inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of climatic features and changes are analyzed by the methods of Sliding Average, M-K and Wavelet Analysis. The results show that the tendency of the yearly average temperature is of a 8-year quasi-periodic variation, presenting three stages of warm→cold→warm. Inter-decadal variations of winter-spring air temperature shows three stages of warm→cold→warm, but Inter - decadal variations of summer-autumn air temperature shows four stages of warm→cold→warm→cold. The annual precipitation in the region has shown a downward trend, the decreasing rate is 13. 813mm/10 years; the spring precipitation was below the national average level, while the summer and autumn precipitation are higher than the national average level, and accounted for more than 80 % of the annual precipitation. The annual precipitation shows two more significant sign of 2 years and 6 years of quasi-periodic changes, and the precipitation increasing and decreasing in the mutation shows its complexity. Spring, summer, and autumn rainfall have decreased trend with the rising temperature, while the winter precipitation has a changing trend from increase to decrease with the rising temperature. It＇ s significant to analyze its climatic characteristics for Bazhong＇s agricultural zoning and production arrangements.