摘要
通过分析灰色系统理论和周期分析方法在水文预报中的各自特点,建立了灰色-周期外延组合预报模型。针对模型预报误差,采用AR(p)模型对误差序列进行拟合和预测,并据此对原模型预测值进行校正。将改进后的模型应用于中长期径流预报实例计算中,结果表明,改进后的模型更好地利用了实测系列的信息,具有更高的预报精度。
Based on respective advantages of grey system theory and period analysis technology in hydrological forecast,we propose the gray-periodic extensional combinatorial model.As for the model error,the error sequence is fitted with automatic regressive model AR(p),and the original model is calibrated accordingly.The improved model has been used in practical examples of mid-long term hydrological forecast,and the results show that the measured data can be utilized better by improved model with higher accuracy.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2010年第24期28-31,共4页
Yangtze River
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40971300
50609007)
关键词
中长期水文预报
灰色-周期外延预报模型
误差校正
预报精度
mid-long term hydrological forecast
gray-periodic extensional combinatorial model
error calibration
accuracy of forecasting