Weibull模型在围岩变形预测的应用及参数求解

Weibull model for surrounding rock deformation prediction and parameter solution

针对岩石隧道围岩变形特性,引入了Weibull生长曲线模型。模型参数利用灰色理论和模式搜索法求解,减小了参数求解的数量以及搜索范围。基于4处隧道围岩变形的现场实测资料,对围岩变形-时间曲线进行了拟合和变形预测。结果表明,Weibull模型拟合精度高,相关系数R为0.995 47～0.999 77,平均值为0.997 96。基于该模型的4处隧道围岩变形的预测值与实测值的平均相对误差为1.710 3%,拟合曲线尾部3点为0.340 5%。结果表明,选用的Weibull模型适应性强,能对隧道围岩变形进行预测。

Weibull model is introduced in accordance with the deformation characteristics of tunnel surrounding rock.The parameters of Weibull model are obtained by grey theory and pattern search method,reducing the number of parameters needed solved and narrowing the search scope.The deformation-time curve of surrounding rock is fitted and the deformation is predicted based on in-situ data of surrounding rock deformation of 4 tunnels.It shows that the precision of Weibull model is the highest.The average relative error between predicted data and in-situ data of surrounding rock deformation of the 4 tunnels is 1.7103%.Therefore,the Weibull model has strong adaptability and can be used in the prediction of surrounding rock deformation of tunnels.