基于GM(1,1)预测模型下的上海市经济结构分析

Analyzing Shanghai's Economic Structure by GM(1,1) Prediction Model

本文以互联网数据为基础、上海市各个产业的生产总值为研究对象,基于预测模型通过对未来几年上海市及全国各个部门的生产总值的预测来分析世博会举办前后上海市经济结构的变化趋势。分析结果显示:在全国经济稳步前进的背景下,上海市的生产总值所占比例趋于一个稳定区间,其中第一、第二产业以及隶属于第二产业的工业、建筑业的生产值所占比例有所下降,但第三产业—服务业的生产值比例大幅度提高。

Based on the internet data,taking GDP of each industry in Shanghai as the research object,this paper forecasts the GDP of Shanghai and the other cities in various industry in the future years by GM（1.1）,and analyzes the economic structure changing before and after Expo Shanghai.The result showed that in the context of the steady progress of national economy,the percentage of Shanghai＇s GDP tends to be stable.In detail,both the ratio of the primary industrial production and the second one,including industry and construction,will decrease a bit,while,the ratio of the third industrial production value will increase significantly.