基于ARIMA组合模型的不同经济类型区域卫技人员预测研究

Study of Forecasting Health Personnel Based on ARIMA Combined Model in Different Economy Type Regions

目的:研究我国东、中、西部不同经济类型区域经济社会发展与卫技人员配置变化规律,为优化卫生资源配置及决策提供方法学实证依据。方法:利用我国东、中、西部不同类型区域经济发展、人口规模及卫技人员配置数量的21年历史数据,探索构建ARIMA与多重线性回归组合模型,并进行预测拟合分析。结果:1986—2008年不同区域卫技人员实际值与预测值的拟合度较好,预测精度高。结论:ARIMA组合模型综合设计考虑了除时间综合变量之外不同区域经济社会发展对卫技人员总量的需求影响,适用性强,具有可行性及合理性。

Objective：To study the changes of social development and health personnel allocation in the Chinese eastern and western areas,in order to provide methodology evidences for optimizing health resources allocation and decision-making.Methods： The ARIMA combined with multiple linear regress models were explored and built,to comparatively predict,fit and analyze the 21 years historical data about social development,population size in Chinese eastern and western different economy type regions.Results： The prediction value and actual value of health personnel in different regions are relatively good from 1986 to 2008,and the forecast precision was high.Conclusion： The ARIMA combined model not only considered the time impacts on the total demand of health personnel in the regions with different economy and society development,but also it was of great applicability,feasibility and rationality.