上市公司财务预测信息虚假陈述案例研究——以杭萧钢构为例

A Case Study on Financial Forecast Information Disclosure Misrepresentation ofListed Companies:The Case of Hangxiao Steel Strcture Company

文章以杭萧钢构为典型案例,研究了其虚假陈述的行为及其经济后果。研究发现,案例公司披露的财务预测信息产生了明显的市场反应,随后一周异常回报陆续维持在一个较高的水平波动,投资者的反应也一直维持在一个较高的水平。案例公司披露的财务预测信息为利好消息,产生了显著为正的累积超常回报率,且累计异常回报持续上升。财务预测信息是一把"双刃剑",当相应的理论约束条件和制度前提得到满足时,在良好的监管下,才能有效发挥其作用,否则会误导投资者的决策。

Taking HangXiao Steel Structure as an example, this paper focuses on the behaviors and economic consequences of misrepresentation. It＇s found that significant market reactions were triggered by the speculative information disclosed by the case company. Moreover, abnormal returns maintained at a high level of volatility in the following week, and investors＇ action also sustained at a fairly high level. As the information disclosed by the case company was a piece of good news, it produced significantly positive cumulative abnormal returns, which still continued to rise. We believe that the financial forecast should be considered as a ＂double-edged sword＂. Only when the corresponding theoretical constraints and institutional premises are met, would it play its role in an effective way. Otherwise, it tends to mislead investors＇ decision.