中国企业生命周期阶段划分及其度量研究

An Empirical Study on Lifecycle Stage Classification and Measurement of China′s Corporate

运用财务综合指标法、现金流分类组合法和销售与资本支出曲线趋势变化法,对近年来中国A股上市公司的生命周期进行定量划分。采用第一种方法和第三种方法得出的结果,注重企业财务指标及发展演进时间序列的具体表现,采用的第二种方法则强调划分依据的真实性与所反映企业信息的准确性;通过比较近年来中国市场上基金产品选股与本文的划分结果,发现成长型或价值型的股票基金产品年度持股与三种方法下划分的结果比较吻合,从而验证了三种方法的合理性及可应用性。

We use financial comprehensive index method, cash flow patterns method, and the sales growth and capital expenditure curve trends method these three empirical quantitative methods to measure the Chinese A - share companies＇ lifeeycle. The first and the third method focus on the performance of some certain financial data and the time series performance of the companies＇ development. The second one puts emphasis on the authenticity of the stage division standards and the accuracy of the information reflected. We also compare lifecycle stage classification result with the se- curity funds stock holding in China, finding that the stocks in the portfolios of the growth funds or value funds are mostly at the growth and mature stages according to our measurement , which validates the rationality of lifecycle measurements.