基于改进灰色关联度法的河北省粮食波动影响因素研究

Study on the Influencing Factors of Grain Production in Hebei Province Based on Gray Correlation Degree Method

【目的】定量分析河北粮食产量波动成因,为全省乃至国家粮食安全生产提供科学的理论和方法支撑。【方法】综合运用EMD和剩余法剥离河北省粮食产量及其各影响因素波动量,并采用一种灰色关联与两两比较判断矩阵有机融合的改进灰色关联方法定量分析河北省粮食产量波动影响因素的影响度。【结果】影响河北省粮食产量波动的各要素时序特征为:自然资源各指标波动振幅在-113.43—34.38;政策经济支持能力各指标振幅在-34.59—31.79,波动强度较大;固定资产投资累计各指标振幅在-17.17—10.52,波动强度较小;可变要素投入各指标波动振幅均在-11.39—9.16。粮食产量波动主控因素为:成灾面积、有效灌溉面积、粮食作物播种面积、支援农业生产及农业事业费用、降水量、化肥施用量等六指标,影响度分别为:19.08%、17.80%、12.84%、11.03%、10.28%、7.79%、7.28%,总影响度达78.82%。【结论】提出的改进灰色关联度方法弥补了传统灰色关联度方法只能定性排序的不足,能够客观真实地反映河北省粮食产量波动的主控因素,为定量化研究变量影响因素影响度提供了新方法。

[Objective] The changes of food production in Hebei Province and the causes of fluctuations in grain yield were studied, in order to guide the production of food security in Hebei Province and provide a scientific and theoretical method. [ Method ] EMD and residual method were used comprehensively to separate food production and its influencing factors of Hebei, and a gray correlation method based on the results compared with paired comparison to determine matrix was used to study the causes of food production fluctuation. [Result] The characteristics influencing the fluctuations of grain production in Hebei Province are that natural resources and the amplitude of various index is between -113.43-34.38; the amplitude of various indicators of policy and economy capacity is -34.59-31.79, which has large fluctuation in intensity; the amplitude of investment of fixed assets is between -17.17-10.52, which has less intensity fluctuations. Index of variable input is between -11.39-9.16. Disaster area, the effective irrigated area, crop acreage, support agricultural production and agricultural business costs, precipitation, chemical fertilizer and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery workers are 6 controlling factors. The degrees of impacts were as follows： 19.08%, 17.8%, 12.84%, 11.03%, 10.28% and 7.79%, to represent the main elements of fluctuations in farmland productivity. [ Conclusion ] Results showed that the integrated use of EMD method and gray correlation method based on the results compared with paired comparison to determine matrix method, has overcome the shortcomings of the traditional method which can be used for qualitative analysis. It is a new scientific theory and method of objectively reflecting the real fluctuations of food production in Hebei Province, which can be used to quantitatively study the degree of impacting factors.