大城市外来人口迁移行为影响因素分析

Analysis on Factors Affecting Decision-making of Migrant Population in Large Cities of China

利用2008年四大城市的外来人口问卷调查资料,运用多层次Logit模型分析影响大城市外来人口迁移行为的个体因素和迁入地因素。研究发现,外来人口的迁移行为发生较大的变化,城城迁移所占比重的上升导致性别、婚姻状况以及户口类型等因素对迁移概率的影响并不显著,迁移更多地表现为以家庭为单位;由于外来人口在就业和工资收入上受到不同程度的歧视,加之迁入地产业结构调整升级,就业岗位的增加对外来人口的吸引力有所下降,并且其预期收入水平与城市居民平均收入水平相脱离;城市平均工资增长率的提高对非正规部门劳动力产生了挤出效应,减小了潜在迁移者的迁移概率。

In this paper, based on survey data of four cities＇migrant population in 2008, we use multi -level Logit model to analyze the factors of individual and areas of destination which have impact on migration behavior of migrant population in large cities. We find that there are large changes in the behavior of migrants： firstly, the rise in the proportion of migrant citizens has led to the effects of gender, marital status and household type and other factors on the probability of migration are not significant, and the migration is appearing to base on the family unit ; Secondly, due to the discrimination against migrants in employment and wage income, and the upgrade of industrial structure, the attractiveness of the increasing jobs to the migrant population has declined, and migrants＇ expected income is detaching from the income level of urban residents ; Thirdly, the growth of urban labors＇average wage has extrusion effect on the employment of the migrant labors in the informal sector, which reduces the probability of potential migrant population.