出口多样化一定能减弱出口波动吗--基于经济发展阶段和贸易政策的效应分析

Can Export Diversity Decrease Export Instability:Effect Analysis Based on Economic Development Stages and Trade Policy

一般认为贸易多样化能减弱出口波动幅度,然而实证分析并不支持两者的稳定关系,甚至不能说明两者之间存在关系。为了解释这种理论与实证产生的冲突,本文从经济发展阶段和贸易政策二维视角,重点分析出口集中度和出口波动的内在机理。分析结论表明由于出口集中度的"U"型特征、行业出口波动差异、贸易政策等因素的影响,使得出口波动和出口集中度呈现整体上的不一致和阶段上的一致性;发展中国家可以通过多样化减弱出口波动的幅度,而发达国家未必如此,贸易政策是导致实证分析中两者关系不显著的重要因素。

In general, the downward of export concentration can decrease export instability, however it can not be proved by empirical test, and there is no relation between them even. In order to explain the dilemma of the theory and the test, this paper analyses the internal mechanism between them through eco- nomic development level and trade policy effect. The analysis shows that because of the influence of the ＂U＂ shape feature of export concentration, the difference of export instability within industries and trade policies, it shows overall in- consistency and phrasal consistency between export instability and export concentration. Developing countries can decrease export instability through export diversity, but to developed country, the fact may not be so, and trade policy is an important factor in empirical analysis.