人民币汇率的稳定机制及其动态过程(Ⅰ)——模型构造

The Mechanism of Stability and Dynamic Process of RMB Exchange Rate(Ⅰ) Modelling

根据现阶段我国外汇管理体制和汇率政策的基本特征，应用汇率经济学理论与系统分析方法，探讨国内外汇市场供求变化的经济学原理，力图揭示汇率稳定与外汇储备变化的内在机制．在描述外汇储备变化与进出口及外资净流入之间关系的基础上，以汇率预期为中间变量，研究人民币汇率与外资净流入及国际外汇市场的汇率走势之间的内在联系，进而建立人民币汇率的实证分析模型．

This paper attempts to construct a theoretical model that can be used to investigate the mechanism of stability and dynamic process of RMB exchange rate in China. Considering foreign exchange control and managed floation rate system of China, which has been maintained since January 1,1994, this paper gives an economic analysis on changes in supply and demand in the national foreign market, using exchange rate economics theory and systematic method. Especially, it is detected that is the relation between exchange rate stability and changes in foreign exchange reserves in this study. Based on structural equation, which could be used to reflect changes in foreign exchange reserves in order to stabilize RMB against the U.S. dollar bilateral exchange rate by taking into account net capital inflow, inports and exports, and exchange rate expectation as well, the model is built and discussed.