基于logistic曲线模型的江苏高新技术产品出口趋势预测研究

Research on Export Forecasting of High Technology Products Based on Logistic Curve Model in Jiangsu Province

改革开放以来,江苏对外贸易一直保持持续、稳定的高速增长,高新技术产品出口额占总出口额比例逐年提高。分析其近十年的变化特征,结合发达国家的普遍规律,拟合出Logistic增长曲线模型,预测未来趋势并提出相应的对策建议。

Since the reform and opening, foreign trade of Jiangsu has kept sustainable and stable growth. The proportion of export of high - tech products and the total export has increased year by year. This article analyzed the characteristics of change in recent ten years. Combined with the general rule of developed countries, the logistic growth curve model was simulated to predict the future trend. And it proposed the corresponding countermeasures.