亚非发展中大国核选择的特点——战略层面的考察

Nuclear Options for Asian-African Large Developing Countries——A Strategic Analysis

纵观亚非发展中大国核开发的历史进程与发展态势,我们清晰地发现,就战略层面而言,不论是现实的还是夸大的安全威胁所建构的核地缘安全环境,抑或两面下注的核开发战略,它们均构成了多数亚非发展中大国核选择的两个显著特点。以美国为首的西方国家根据自身战略需要进行选择性核扩散的行为,不公正的国际核不扩散机制使得亚非发展中大国国内存在着挑战不扩散机制的强烈动能,而即便是暂时保持核克制的国家,随着国内外环境的突变与恶变,其核选择之路仍充满曲折与变数。

Taking a broad view of their historical progress in nuclear development,the nuclear geopolitical security environment constructed by either realistic or exaggerated security threats,or the nuclear development strategy in which they hedged their bets,have become two distinct characteristics of nuclear options for Asian-African large developing countries.US-led western countries have been implementing selective proliferation policy according to their own strategic needs;the existing international non-proliferation regime is very unfair.All these have brought about strong domestic impetus to challenge non-proliferation regime in Asian-African large developing countries.And even for some countries which temporarily keep restrained in nuclear development,their road of nuclear options remains full of twists and turns,depending on the sudden change and worsening of domestic and foreign environment.