应用地理信息系统技术对江苏省艾滋病疫情的空间分析

Study on the spatial distribution of AIDS based on geographic information system in Jiangsu province

目的 探讨江苏省各县（区）HIV感染者空间分布规律,试建立疫情预测模型.方法 建立江苏省各县（市）HIV感染者人数疫情数据库,根据地理信息分析HIV感染者相关的地理特征,对HIV感染者人数进行趋势分析、空间自相关分析、空间线性回归分析.结果 （1）江苏省HIV感染者总体呈随机分布,但局部地区存在感染者聚集现象,发现南京市城区的感染者人数表现为负自相关,苏州和无锡市城区两地为正自相关.铜山县、吴江市、南京市浦口区和城区、溧水县、无锡市城区、苏州市城区为江苏省HIV感染者高度聚集的热点区域.（2）建立江苏省HIV感染者疫情分布图和趋势分析图,全省HIV感染者分布在地理东西方向上的变化不大,南北方向上,苏南地区疫情远远比苏北和苏中地区严重.（3）运用最小二乘法进行HIV感染者人数的空间线性回归分析,江苏省HIV感染者人数与地理经纬度之间的线性回归关系无统计学意义（t=-1.045 103,P=0.299 904;t=-1.443 668,P=0.153 714）.结论 应根据江苏省HIV感染者空间分布特点,制定预防和控制疫情传播的措施.

Objective To analyze the spatial distribution of AIDS in every city of Jiangsu province, trying to describe the geographic characteristics of AIDS and to develop a prediction model.Methods Numbers of patients in Jiangsu province were collected, to establish the database for the geographic information system, then setting up a ＇risk map＇ of the disease. Spatial, autocorrelation.Linear spatial analyses were used to study the patients＇ numbers. Results （1）Results from the autocorrelation analysis showed that the distribution of AIDS was clustered at some places and was at random on the whole. The results also indicated that the distribution of AIDS in Nanjing was of negative correlation, while that in Suzhou and Wuxi were of positive correlation but in Tongshan, Wujiang, Pukou, Nanjing, Lishui, Wuxi and Suzhou showed seven locations of clusters with disease was more severe in the southern than in the northern parts of Jiangsu province. （3）Ordinary Least Squares method was finally used in the linear spatial regression and the results were： t=-1.045 103 （P=0.299 904）; t=-1.443 668 （P=0.153 714） respectively. Conclusion According to the feature spatial distribution of the disease, effective measures should be taken to prevent and to keep the prevalence of AIDS under control.