服务业外商直接投资流入与房地产市场风险研究——以上海为例

Research on Foreign Direct Investment and the Real Estate Market Risks:Based on the Case of Shanghai

我国房地产价格的持续攀升引起政府和社会的极大关注,其中以北京、上海等一线城市尤为典型。影响我国房价持续快速攀升的因素众多,着眼于服务业外商直接投资的流入对上海房地产价格的冲击及可能存在的市场风险展开分析。结果显示,外商直接投资的变动对上海房地产价格波动不构成显著性影响。这表明,目前我国政府的宏观调控措施成功规避了FDI流入可能产生的资产泡沫风险。但是,面对当前通货膨胀预期全面显现、房价居高不下的现实,政府应继续对各类以FDI名义的短期资本流动加以必要的管控;将利率维持在一个较为合理的低水平,以熨平国内宏观经济增长的大幅波动,确保房地产市场的稳定健康发展。

In recent years, China＇ s real estate price has risen successively, especially in the cities of Beijing and Shanghai, which aroused great concern to the government and the community. Among the factors that affect rapid increase of China＇ s housing prices, in service sector on the Shanghai housing the paper concerned about the e impact of foreign direct investment inflow prices and possible risks in its real estate market. The results show that the influences of foreign direct investment on Shanghai real estate market price fluctuation do not produce significant effects. It strongly indicates that the current domestic macro - policy authorities successfully circumvent the possible the mask of FDI. At the same time, we should keep the related interest rates at a reasonably low level. We should also strive to iron the domestic macro - economic growth fluctuation in order to ensure the real estate market stability and healthy development.