农村金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究——以四川为例

Empirical Study on the Relationship between Rural Financial Development and Rural Economic Growth——A Study of Sichuan Province

以农村金融与经济增长相关理论和Pagano模型为基础,运用计量经济方法对四川1989～2008年农村金融发展与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究表明:四川农村金融相关率、资本边际产出率与农村经济增长存在显著的正相关关系,而储蓄率与农村经济增长存在显著的负相关关系。最后结合研究结论提出了一系列符合四川实际情况的农村金融改革的相关政策和建议。

Based on relative theory about rural finance and economic growth, Pagano model and the Statistical data from 1989 to 2008 of Sichuan province, this paper does empirical analysis with econometric methods to study the relationship between rural finance and economic growth. The results shows： significant positive correlation exists between FIR and rural economic growth, as well as Marginal capital -output ratio and rural economic growth, whereas the savings rate and rural economic growth are inversely correlative actually. At last this paper gives relevant policy recommendations about rural financial reform according to the study.