货币模型中时间偏好与经济稳定性的分析

A Monetary Model for Analyzing Time Preference and Economic Stability

传统经济理论假设"经济人"是完全理性的,具有完备记忆、稳定的偏好,然而这样的理性假设实际上超越了人的内在特性。本文建立了一个货币管理机构采取利率反馈规则的货币模型,并假定个体的时间偏好依赖于整个经济的收入、平均消费和货币量,运用动态法研究了具有社会属性的时间偏好是如何影响经济长期均衡处的稳定性的。结论是异质的时间偏好对于货币政策的实现效果起着重要作用,不同的货币政策会对市场能否恢复到均衡状态产生影响。只有当个体的效用函数满足本文给出的充分条件时,调节利率的经济政策才不会对均衡处的稳定性产生影响,否则政策会失效甚至起到副作用。

Traditional economic theory assumes that the economic agent is entirely rational,with complete memory and stable preferences,but this fact is beyond the inherent human characteristics.In this paper,we construct an infinite and continuous time model where the monetary authority follows interest-rate feedback rules.Postulating that the agents＇ time preference depends on the economy-wide total income,average consumption and money balance,which are social factors taken as external ones by individual agents,we use dynamic method to check how the impatience affects the economic stability.Our conclusion is that the heterogeneity of time preference plays an important role in the realization of different monetary policy and that with the socially determined individual time preference,the macroeconomic stability of the long run equilibrium can arise under a set of sufficient conditions which are derived in this context.